Electric Insights - The Great Grid Upgrade, and the growing influence of Britain’s weather on its electricity

The growing influence of Britain’s weather on its electricity

A grey, still Wednesday in January revealed how the weather now calls the shots on Britain’s power system. Real-time prices spiked to over seven times the winter average (an eye-watering £2,900/MWh), and the system operator spent £21 million balancing supply and demand that day. The Royal Meteorological Society’s latest “State of the Climate for the UK Energy Sector” report shows how weather-driven changes in renewable output and demand drive power prices, and how extreme weather events increasingly impact on our energy infrastructure.

Throughout November 2024, calm and cloudy conditions led to below-average wind and solar generation. Fortunately, the long wind drought coincided with mild temperatures that reduced demand for electricity, muting price impacts.

The weather not only moves prices, but is increasingly damaging Britain’s energy infrastructure. Seven named storms hit the UK over the 2024–25 season (April to April). Storm Darragh (6–7 December 2024) left 2.3 million customers without power across Wales and central and northern England, while Storm Éowyn (24 January 2025) left >1 million customers disconnected across Scotland and northern England.

The Great Grid Upgrade

Earlier this year, National Grid announced The Great Grid Upgrade: 17 projects that form the largest overhaul since the creation of our modern ‘supergrid’ in the 1960s. New offshore interconnectors and targeted upgrades to onshore networks, pylons and substations will strengthen the links between Scotland, England and the North Sea to move clean power from where it is generated to where it is needed. At a cost of £19bn, this expansion represents two-thirds of National Grid’s planned investments to 2030.

Most of the UK’s network upgrades are still in the planning stages, with onshore projects facing strong opposition from local groups concerned about the visual and environmental impacts of pylons.

Battery storage soars, long-duration storage is next

Energy storage is essential to keep any clean power system running smoothly. Unlike traditional power plants, wind and solar farms cannot be ‘dispatched’ to meet demand, so storing energy in periods of high renewable output and releasing it when needed is a key pillar of the UK’s Clean Power Mission.

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are now Britain’s largest form of energy storage. They use the same core technology as mobile phones and electric vehicles (lithium-ion cells), but on a much larger scale. Installed BESS capacity has risen sharply over the past decade, from almost nothing in 2015 to over 6 GW today, enough to power 1.3 million homes for a day.

Batteries can only hold a few hours’ worth of electricity. So, going forward, medium-duration and long-duration storage (MDES and LDES) are needed to support the future energy system and meet the Clean Power Action Plan.

The UK’s carbon price surges

The UK’s carbon market, which sets the cost of emitting CO2, is experiencing a strong rally this year. The carbon price is up 75% since January, pushing up the cost of generating electricity from fossil fuels.

For two decades, the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) has placed a price on emitting carbon, giving companies the incentive to reduce emissions. The UK has run its own carbon market since 2021, separating from the European ETS as part of the Brexit negotiations. At the end of January this year, the FT reported that talks had begun to rejoin the UK to the EU ETS. The UK carbon price jumped by 13% in a single day. At the UK-EU Reset Summit, both sides committed to take this forwards. Once linked, UK carbon prices would reconverge with those in the EU.

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